Sunday, October 25, 2009

USD Finding Support

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was on the front foot as risk appetite waned and profit taking on the most pairs saw the USD gain across the board. The Euro struggled to stay above 1.5000 and USD/JPY made fresh multi-month highs above the 92 Yen level. September Existing Home Sales +9.4% vs. 5% forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA -109 points closing at 9972, S&P -13 points closing at 1079 and NASDAQ -10 points closing at 2154.


The Euro (EUR) had a mixed day but fell in the end with US stocks closing at 1.5000 but struggled to break higher. Weighing the single currency down was heavy losses in the GBP although EUR/JPY did manage to support as USD/JPY rallied. October IFO Business Climate at 91.9 vs forecast at 92. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4993 and a high of 1.5060 before closing at 1.5000.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded above 92 as the rally extended. Talk of the differing medium term outlook on interest rates are helping the USD to become the higher yielding currency. Also helping the Yen to weaken is the continued reemergence of the carry trade. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.29 and a high of 92.12 before closing the day around 92.07 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was sold aggressively as Q3 GDP remained negative leaving the UK in recession. The pair fell over 3 big figures giving up a week of gains. Q3 GDP -0.4% vs. 0.2% forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6300 and a high of 1.6693 before closing the day at 1.6308 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) slipped on profit taking and risk aversion falling back to supports at 0.9200. AUD/JPY remained well supported as it ignored the falls in New York. Attention is turning to the RBA meeting in November and whether they will raise and by how much. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9200 and a high of 0.9295 before closing the US session at 0.9220.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold fell with USD strength but kept to the recent range. Overall trading with a low of USD$1051 and high of USD$1068 before ending the New York session at USD$1053 an ounce. Oil fell back to $80 a barrel supports. Crude Oil was down -0.69 ending the New York session at $80.50

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