Championship October 2009 - 3 place in the championship of broker Bulbrokers, + 600% of the equity

I dedicate this victory to a very special person who always twisted and believed in me and my work.

October 2009 - 3 place in the championship of broker Bulbrokers, + 600% of the equity

Consulting: edlivre@hotmail.com 55 11 6490-2107

Edson Bezerra Cavalcanti
 
 
BULBROKERS MARKETS
 
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Technical Analysis

EURUSD


As I had expected, the EURUSD continued it's bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4690 and closed at 1.4715. As you can see in my daily chart below, we area in critical technical phase where price is now testing the major trendline support. This trendline support could be a strong support area since overall in longer term the bullish outlook remains intact, but once violated to the downside, we should have further bearish scenario. So I think what is going to happen on that trendline support today and the rest of this week should be our technical focus at this phase.

On h4 chart below, after violated the bullish channel the bearish momentum seems strong with technical target back towards 1.4500 area. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 1.4580 area but once again, pay attention to the major trendline support on daily chart above. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4760. Break above that area should trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.4850 area and might be considered as potential end to the current bearish correction.

 
 
GBPUSD


The GBPUSD made had another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that the pair attempted to stay above the bearish channel, topped at 1.6466 but once again failed to close convincingly above the bearish channel indicating that bullish pressure is not strong enough to push higher and might be exhausted and potentially trigger bearish momentum. I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase with 1.6113 as the bearish target. Immediate resistance at 1.6430/60 area

USDJPY


The USDJPY continued it's bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 90.54 and closed at 90.73. After failed to break above 92.50 resistance area, the pair keep moving lower and now, as you can see on my h4 chart below, has violated the bullish channel to the downside indicating potential further bearish momentum. The bias remains bearish targeting 90.00 – 89.50 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 91.10 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

USDCHF

The USDCHF continued it's bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0276 and closed at 1.0262. On my h4 chart below we can see that the bullish momentum is now testing the 1.0280 resistance area. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but we need a clear break above 1.0280 to confirm bullish scenario targeting 1.0360 even back towards 1.0450 area. Immediate support at 1.0230 followed by 1.0166.

EURJPY

As I had expected, the EURJPY had another bearish momentum yesterday, hit my target at 134.40, even further, bottomed at 133.25. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 131.00 before aim for 127.00 area. Immediate resistance at 134.00/40 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and long position is not recommended

GBPJPY

The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, break below my support area at 149.40, bottomed at 148.28 and closed at 148.69. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is moving in a bearish channel indicating bearish tone. This fact should lead us to further downside pressure targeting at least 146.50 area. Immediate resistance at 148.50 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bearish scenario and long position is not recommended at this phase

Technical Commentary

Euro 1.4820


Initial support at 1.4770 (Oct 27 low) followed by 1.4762 (Oct 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5083 (Oct 21 high) followed by 1.5163 (76.4% retrace 1.6038 - 1.2330)


Yen 91.70

Initial support is located at 91.18 (Oct 23 low) followed by 90.49 (Oct 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.53 (Sept 21 high) followed by 93.3 (Sept 7 high).

Pound 1.6380

Initial support at 1.6241 (Oct 19 low) followed by 1.6120 (Oct 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6533 (61.8% retrace 1.7043 - 1.5708) followed by 1.6693 (Oct 23 high).

Australian Dollar 0.9170

Initial support at 0.9113 (Oct 19 low) followed by the 0.8985 (Oct 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9347 (Aug 4 08 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 08 high).

Gold 1040

Initial support at 1024 (Sep 17 low) followed by 1000 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 1067 (Oct 20 high) followed by 1070 (Oct 14 high).

Oil 79.70

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 77.50 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 ( Major Level) followed by 82.00 (October High).

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO


The pair started today's trading with some upside potential yet we see on the hourly charts that the pair failed to close above 1.5045 or 1.5065 which resulted in a reversal to the downside where the stochastic indicator is showing a bearish crossover supporting the correctional decline. The pair does need a slight correction to the downside, despite the medium term trend remaining to the upside, where a breach of 1.4985 will confirm our expectations for today for a decline on the intraday basis.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4710 and the key resistance at 1.5280

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4135 remains intact with targets at 1.6000

Support: 1.5010, 1.4985, 1.4955, 1.4860, 1.4815

Resistance: 1.5045, 1.5065, 1.5155, 1.5205, 1.5280

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.5030 to 1.4925 and stop loss above 1.5110 might be appropriate.


GBP


After the rapid decline witnessed last Friday, the pair continued to slump today once again as the 1.6205 will mark as a pivot point for today's trading. Trading is now below the 38.2% correction for the upside wave which suggests further declines on the intraday basis. Momentum indicators are showing the pair being oversold which may result in high volatility which may form a bearish technical pattern. The decline remains as far as 1.6360 is intact on the intraday basis and the 23.6% correction at 1.6460 on the short term.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5860 and the key resistance at 1.6720

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7100

Support: 1.6200, 1.6165, 1.6110, 1.6085, 1.5940

Resistance: 1.6290, 1.6320, 1.6360, 1.6465, 1.6520

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 1.6290 to 1.6080 and stop loss above 1.6360 might be appropriate


JPY


The general uptrend continues despite the downside correction that the pair engaged in this week which was due to overbought signs appearing on momentum indicators alongside the weakness in the uptrend in the ADX indicator. All these signs suggest further declines on the intraday basis. Note that the short term trend remains to the upside and this decline is nothing more than a correction to gather bullish momentum.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 88.15 and the key resistance at 95.00

The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 91.60, 91.25, 90.70, 90.25, 89.85

Resistance: 92.05, 92.50, 92.90, 93.15, 94.10

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 92.05 to 91.25 and stop loss above 92.90 might be appropriate.

Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY


The daily closing that occurred on Friday -secondary image- supports our captured short term Elliott sequence while the GBP/JPY pair is forming the [A] wave as seen on our provided four-hour chart. The technical target of the aforesaid wave resides around 146.40. Hence we keep our overview to the downside on the intraday basis. A slight correction may occur before resuming the downside rally. Momentum and trend indicators support our overview.

Trading range for today is among key support at 143.90 and key resistance at 155.80.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 167.40 remains intact with target at 116.00.

Support: 149.00, 148.20, 147.40, 146.40, 145.50

Resistance: 150.00, 150.60, 151.20, 151.90, 152.45

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair from 150.00 targeting 147.40 and stop loss above 152.00 might be appropriate

EUR/JPY


The secondary image shows how the EUR/JPY pair is currently forming a bearish candlestick formation that may assist it to activate the fifth wave of the Elliott sequence. Therefore we keep our overview to the downside on the intraday basis. The technical target of our proposed [A] wave is currently located at 134.85 zones. Indicators support the scenario.

Trading range for today is among key support at 134.15 and key resistance now at 140.50.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.

Support: 137.30, 136.70, 136.10, 135.50, 134.85

Resistance: 138.20, 138.55, 139.00, 139.25, 140.00

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair from 138.20 targeting 136.10 and stop loss above 140.00 might be appropriate.

EUR/GBP


The pair is approaching the second technical target of the bullish scenario at 0.9260 after the acceleration occurred ahead of Friday's closing, supporting our detected Elliott waves count as seen on the chart above. Now, internal corrective waves may occur but it will not cancel the positive scenario of the intraday basis. The previous discussed harmonic pattern on Stochastic still supports our outlook.

The trading range is among the key support at 0.9030 and key resistance now at 0.9420.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 area remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels.

Support: 0.9190, 0.9130, 0.9105, 0.9070, 0.9030

Resistance: 0.9260, 0.9300, 0.9340, 0.9400, 0.9420

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair from 0.9190 targeting 0.9300 and stop loss below 0.9105 might be appropriate.

Asia Session

Although trading to start the week was relatively subdued due to holidays in New Zealand and Hong Kong, it did have its moment of excitement. The Financial News, a paper linked to China's central bank printed a report from a Chinese researcher stating that China should increase its holdings of both Euros and yen. This report helped push the EUR/USD through fresh 14 month highs of 1.5063 on a stop driven move that energized a quiet Monday in Asia. The pair initially opened lower and fell to lows of 1.4980 before the news sent the pair rocketing higher.


The yen benefitted as well from the report, as USD/JPY slid from recent highs near 92.16 to just near 91.57 for the day. Yen crosses all dropped in favor of a stronger yen, despite the fact that Asian equities shrugged off Fridays losses on Wall Street and were clearly promoting a stronger risk appetite.

The AUD/USD was initially soft on worse than expected PPI data which came in at 0.1% as opposed to the forecast 0.3%, but the pair was pulled higher by the gains in the Euro. AUD/USD touched a 0.9275 high after a bottom of 0.9195. NZD/USD also rode the wave to 0.7565 before settling down near 0.7535.

Inevitably, the report from China was eventually denied as a statement was released stating that the views in the report were 'fully personal' views of the researcher. Thus, most pairs returned to humbler, yet elevated levels as the day wore down.

USD Finding Support

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was on the front foot as risk appetite waned and profit taking on the most pairs saw the USD gain across the board. The Euro struggled to stay above 1.5000 and USD/JPY made fresh multi-month highs above the 92 Yen level. September Existing Home Sales +9.4% vs. 5% forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA -109 points closing at 9972, S&P -13 points closing at 1079 and NASDAQ -10 points closing at 2154.


The Euro (EUR) had a mixed day but fell in the end with US stocks closing at 1.5000 but struggled to break higher. Weighing the single currency down was heavy losses in the GBP although EUR/JPY did manage to support as USD/JPY rallied. October IFO Business Climate at 91.9 vs forecast at 92. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4993 and a high of 1.5060 before closing at 1.5000.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded above 92 as the rally extended. Talk of the differing medium term outlook on interest rates are helping the USD to become the higher yielding currency. Also helping the Yen to weaken is the continued reemergence of the carry trade. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.29 and a high of 92.12 before closing the day around 92.07 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was sold aggressively as Q3 GDP remained negative leaving the UK in recession. The pair fell over 3 big figures giving up a week of gains. Q3 GDP -0.4% vs. 0.2% forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6300 and a high of 1.6693 before closing the day at 1.6308 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) slipped on profit taking and risk aversion falling back to supports at 0.9200. AUD/JPY remained well supported as it ignored the falls in New York. Attention is turning to the RBA meeting in November and whether they will raise and by how much. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9200 and a high of 0.9295 before closing the US session at 0.9220.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold fell with USD strength but kept to the recent range. Overall trading with a low of USD$1051 and high of USD$1068 before ending the New York session at USD$1053 an ounce. Oil fell back to $80 a barrel supports. Crude Oil was down -0.69 ending the New York session at $80.50